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The Hazards of Confirmation Bias in Aviation
By Shanon Kern
A wise pilot once told me, “If you’re planning to fly somewhere, be ready to drive.” At the time, I didn’t fully understand the relevance of this statement. In my inexperienced student pilot mind, I believed that I would be able to plan a vacation, reserve the plane months in advance, and fly to my intended destination. I was unaware that in order for a scenario like this to work out, a lot of external factors would have to fall perfectly in place.
According to the NTSB database, in 2013 there were a total of 49 part 91, aviation related accidents where instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) prevailed. As I searched through the database and read the weather reports, I was left wondering why a pilot would choose to fly in such adverse weather conditions? After reading several factual NTSB reports, a pattern started to develop. The majority of the flights were not VFR flights into IMC conditions. They were cross-country flights where the weather was questionable, at best, from the start.